# Midseason Baseball Projections – American League

With the baseball season entering the midpoint of its long 162-game schedule, each team has played approximately half its scheduled games. This is the time when I compare their actual winning percentages to their expected winning percentages based on all games played as of the end of July 2. To obtain their expected winning percentages I use my Sabermetrics Formula, called The Linear Formula for Baseball, which is based on their run differential (subtracting their runs allowed from their runs scored) on all games played so far. My Formula is:

Expected Winning Percentage = 0.00112*(Runs Scored – Runs Allowed) + 0.50.

For example, the Yankees expected winning percentage based on their first 80 games is  0.463 = 0.00112*(329-362) + 0.50. Their actual winning percentage based on their first 80 games is 0.480. This show a slight over performance by the Yankees probably due to the big three BMC in the back of their bullpen.

Below is my recap of the comparison of Actual PCT to Predicted PCT and Actual Standings to Predicted Standings for all 15 American League Teams.

What does the comparison between the Actual and Predicted PCT show for each team? Since a team’s predicted PCT is based solely on the difference between a team’s runs scored and runs allowed, we can see which teams underperformed and which teams over performed in the first half. Over performing is when a team’s Predicted PCT is less than their Actual PCT, that is, they won more games than their run differential indicated. Underperforming is when a team’s Predicted PCT is more than their Actual PCT, that is, they won less games than their run differential indicated. Texas was the team that most over performed and Minnesota most underperformed.

In the AL East, Baltimore and Boston swapped places based on their predicted PCT. Toronto, New York and Tampa stayed fixed. Based on these results I predict we will have a three-team race in the AL East and my nod goes to Boston because of their hitting and the fact they have the money to buy a top-line starting pitcher.

In the AL Central, the new City of Champions Cleveland will easily win the Central Division. I see Kansas City dropping to third place and Detroit moving up to second place in the final standings.In AL West, we will have a close three-team fight for the Divisional Championship between Texas, Houston.

and Seattle. The Predicted PCT shows that Texas vastly over performed and Seattle underperformed which accounted for the change in their predicted standings. Seattle jumped into first place and Texas dropped to second place while Houston dropped to third place. I will go out on a limb and predict that in the end even though Seattle is currently 9.5 games behind Texas they will win the Division and Texas will finish second.

From what I said above the five teams that will contend for the AL Pennant are the three Divisional Champions Boston, Cleveland and Seattle along with my two Wild-Card teams  Baltimore and Texas.

Yes, the City of Champions Cleveland Indians will win the AL Pennant.

The next blog will analyze the National League.