My previous blog looked at the performances of the American League Teams at the midpoint of the 2016 season. I now turn to looking at the National League Teams. As I did with the Al Teams, I will compare the NL Teams actual winning percentages to their expected winning percentages based on all games played as of the end of July 2. To obtain their expected winning percentages I use my Sabermetrics Formula, called The Linear Formula for Baseball, which is based on their run differential (subtracting their runs allowed from their runs scored) on all games played so far. My Formula is:
Expected Winning Percentage = 0.00112*(Runs Scored – Runs Allowed) + 0.50.
For example, the Mets expected winning percentage based on their first 80 games is 0.515 = 0.00112*(294-280) + 0.50. Their actual winning percentage based on their first 80 games is 0.538. This shows a slight over performance by the Mets probably due to their great five starting pitchers and solid closer.
Below is my recap of the comparison of Actual PCT to Predicted PCT and Actual Standings to Predicted Standings for all 15 National League Teams.
What does the comparison between the Actual and Predicted PCT show for each team? Since a team’s predicted PCT is based solely on the difference between a team’s runs scored and runs allowed, we can see which teams underperformed and which teams over performed in the first half. Over performing is when a team’s Predicted PCT is less than their Actual PCT, that is, they won more games than their run differential indicated. Underperforming is when a team’s Predicted PCT is more than their Actual PCT, that is, they won less games than their run differential indicated. Philadelphia and San Francisco were the teams that most over performed and Chicago and St. Louis most underperformed.
Unlike the comparison between the actual and predicted standings for the American League, both Standings in the NL are identical except for a tie between Atlanta and Philadelphia. In fact, I expect Atlanta to pass Philadelphia for fourth place. The fact that the Predicted Standings confirm the Actual Standings in the NL influences my prediction as to the five National League Teams that will be in the 2016 playoffs.
In the NL East, Washington should win the Division. Because of their great heat-throwing young starters the Mets should hold off the Marlins for second place. In the NL Central, I believe St Louis will make a run at Chicago but fall short. In the NL West, I see the Giants falling off but if Kershaw is lost for a long period of time the Giants should comfortably win the West.
Washington, Chicago and San Francisco will be the Division Winners. My two NL Wild Cards will be New York and St. Louis.