Before looking at the pitchers most deserving of a ticket to Cooperstown, the news on December 9, 2013, was the Expansion Era Committee of the Hall of Fame elected three retired managers Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Joe Torre to the Hall. Up until July, 2010 the Veterans Committee was responsible for considering baseball people who had a major impact on baseball ineligible for consideration by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). These baseball people would include managers, umpires, executives, and long-retired players. Since July 2010, The Veterans Committee has been replaced by three new 16-member committees based on three eras. The three committees are the Pre-Integration Era Committee (1876-1946), the Golden Era Committee (1947-1972), and the Expansion Era Committee (1973-present). All three retired managers were unanimous selections. However, George Steinbrenner fell six votes short of election. Can you name another baseball executive (maybe Marvin Miller) with more of an impact on baseball than George? Where would Torre be without George?
Looking at the pitchers on the 2014 ballot, I have excluded Roger Clemens because of his connection to PED use. In spite of the fact that his statistics are of a first ballot Hall of Famer, last year he appeared on only 38% of the ballots. I expect a similar outcome for Clemens this year. The four pitchers most likely to make it are Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Jack Morris. My analysis will compare these four pitchers to seven Hall of Fame pitchers with similar statistics. The Hall of Famers used for comparison purposes are Warren Spahn, Tom Seaver (top percentage vote-getter), Bert Blyleven, Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, Bob Gibson, and Juan Marichal. The table below uses the following pitching statistics: total wins (W), winning percentage (W-L%), earned run average (ERA), walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP), the ratio of strike-outs to walks (SO/BB), the number of Cy Young Awards (CYY), the Hall of Fame Standard Test (the HOF average is 50), and the number of All-Star game appearance (AS). For each category the 11 pitchers are sorted from best to worst.
Greg Maddux with 355 wins, four Cy Young Awards, and the highest HOF Standard Test of 70 is a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer. His Atlanta Braves buddy Tom Glavine with 300 plus wins (usually an automatic ticket to Cooperstown) should also make it. Glavine has two Cy Youngs and a HOF Standard score of 52 and 10 All-Star appearances. Next is Mike Mussina,.who has a good case for election. His 270 victories are above Hall of Famers Gibson, Palmer, Feller, and Marichal. His W-L% is second to Palmer’s and his 54 score on the HOF test is above the average of 50. The lack of a Cy Young Award and being on the ballot for the first time works against him. Combining the facts that Jack Morris was on 67.7 percent of the ballots last year with this is his last year on the ballot, might push him over the top. Yes, Glavine will join Maddux and their newly HOF elected former manager Bobby Cox at the induction ceremony. Mussina is 50-50 and unfortunately Morris will be left out of the party,
|stan “the stats man” said…
Marty: Spahn is not being passed over because he is already in the Hall of Fame. The seven players used to compare to Maddux, Glavine, Mussina and Morris ate all Hall of Famers.
December 11, 2013 10:00:05
|Martin Cobern said…
Stan, Why does Warren Spahn get passed over, other than the fact that he played before many of these writers were born, working long games without “setup men” and “closers.” “Spahn & Sain and two days of rain,” is a tribute to his overpowering status. He gets my vote.
December 11, 2013 09:15:23