In my July 23, 2013 blog posting, I made my predictions for the post-season. You can read this blog by going to my blog page and clicking on the month of July in the archives. Quoting from that blog I wrote, “These are my playoff predictions for 2013. First, the division winners are for the AL-East Boston, for the AL-Central Detroit, for the AL-West Oakland, for the NL-East Atlanta, for the NL-Central St Louis, and for NL-West the Dodgers. My two wild-card choices are for the AL Tampa Bay and Baltimore or Texas (a tossup) and for the NL Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. I pick Detroit for the AL-Conference winner and St. Louis for the NL-Conference winner. The last time Detroit won a World Series was in 1984 under the leadership of Sparky Anderson. Detroit’s current manager Jim Leyland managed the 2013 All-Star game to win and the AL won. Yes, with the help of home field advantage the Detroit Tigers will win the 2013 World Series. Sadly, I predict my beloved Yankees will be on vacation during the playoffs.” It turned out of the 11 teams (a tie between Tampa Bay and Texas for the second wild-card) that made the post-season; I correctly predicted 10 of them. The only mistake was the choice of Baltimore over Cleveland. My two choices for the World Series, St. Louis and Detroit are alive and doing well.
These predictions were made on July 21 and printed on July 23. The principal tool I used to make these predictions was the new formula I developed which I called the Linear Theorem for Baseball. The formula is as follows:
The Expected Winning Percentage for a Team is equal to .000683*(the runs scored by a team – the runs allowed by a team) +.50.
Expressed symbolically: Expected Win% = .000683*(RS-RA)+.50.
The idea behind this formula is that the best predictor of a team’s performance (after several games) is the difference between their runs scored and runs allowed. I will be presenting my new formula in Baltimore at the Joint Meeting of the American Math Society and the Mathematical Association of America on January 18, 2014.
So how did my formula equate to the final MLB team’s standings in 2013? The following table list only those MLB teams whose (RS-RA) were positive. The table is sorted on the Linear Theorem % Column which gives the percentage of wins based on my Linear Theorem. Here are my observations:
(1) The six divisional winners (Boston, Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Dodgers) won their divisions based on my formula.
(2) The top 11 teams by my formula (see the last column) made it to the post-season. How about that?
I also have formulas for the NFL and the NBA.
For the NFL, Expected Win% = .001538*(PS-PA)+.50 (PS is points scored and PA is points allowed)
For the NBA, Expected Win% = .000364*(PS-PA)+.50
|Mitchell Corr said…
How did you get .000683? Then the addition of .50 after (RS-RA)?
November 8, 2013 07:26:55
Great work Dr. Stan! When will you be posting your predictions for the NFL playoffs using your formula?
October 15, 2013 11:28:44